Earlier in the week, the New York Times produced a pretty amazing interactive map of the 2016 election at the voting precinct level. There are all kinds of nuggets of information that will amaze you…like precincts in New York City that went for Donald Trump at the same percentages as did the reddest parts of Texas or Alabama.
I suspect there are two parts to this. One is strictly career driven. Much like the Sovietologists who made their living interpreting what was going on in the USSR by the arrangement of key figures at the May Day Parade, political analysts whose professional livelihoods depend upon predicting election outcomes (I’m just saying “predicting” not “accurately predicting” because if accuracy were a requirement they’d all starve) are threatened by the loss of “swing seats.” If 80% of the races are callable before the first ballot is cast, who is going to pay these people to predict the outcome in about 40 House seats, particularly when they are no more accurate than a coin toss?
The second part is a real concern that we are becoming two separate nations without shared experiences, or history, or even values.